In this talk, I will introduce the “incidence, cumulative-cases” (ICC) curve as a phase-plane perspective on the traditional SIR compartmental epidemic model. Through a stochastic representation of this dynamical system, we will uncover statistical properties that appear only in the ICC perspective. This has leveraged these to develop an algorithm that not only fits ICC curves through data, but also detects when the epidemic trajectory changes. Through applying this to COVID-19 case data, we can identify when the epidemic trajectory has changed and quantify said changes.

Math, 402 and Zoom: https://arizona.zoom.us/j/83307190924  password: applied