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Quantifying the Transmissibility of Seasonal and Pandemic Influenza
Gerardo Chowell-Puente
LANL
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Quantifying the Transmissibility of Seasonal and Pandemic Influenza Gerardo Chowell-Puente LANL |
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ABSTRACT Recurrent epidemics of influenza are observed seasonally around the world with considerable health and economic consequences. Major changes in the influenza virus composition through antigenic shifts can give rise to pandemics. The reproduction number provides a measure of the transmissibility of influenza. We estimated the reproduction number across influenza seasons in the United States, France, and Australia for the last 3 decades. In regards to pandemic influenza, we estimated the reproduction number of the Spring and Fall pandemic waves of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Geneva, Switzerland and for the Fall wave in the city of San Francisco, California. I will discuss the public health implications of our findings in terms of controlling regular influenza epidemics and an influenza pandemic of comparable magnitude to that of 1918. |