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Using Mathematical Models to Gain Insight into Understanding and Controlling the Spread of Epidemics
Mac Hyman
Los Alamos National Laboratory
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Using Mathematical Models to Gain Insight into Understanding and Controlling the Spread of Epidemics Mac Hyman Los Alamos National Laboratory |
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ABSTRACT Mathematical models based on the underlying transmission mechanisms of the disease can help the medical/scientific community understand and anticipate the spread of an epidemic and evaluate the potential effectiveness of different approaches for bringing an epidemic under control. Even more important than the successes with these specific diseases has been the development of frameworks and concepts for understanding epidemiology. I will describe some of our mathematical modeling efforts to understand the spread of infectious diseases, including influenza, smallpox, foot and mouth disease, and HIV to estimate and subsequently predict the impact of control measures on their spread. I will describe how mathematical models can reduce the uncertainty of the estimates of disease prevalence and aid in the development of scientific understanding of the mechanisms of the disease and of the epidemic. Thus, the modeling techniques can join with biological, epidemiological, behavioral, and social science studies to produce better projections and better understanding of the epidemic. |