Mathematics 362

Introduction to Probability Theory

Spring 2003

Overview. Using counting and calculus, probability incorporates mathematics into our ideas of chance and uncertainty. Consequently, learning probability will require that we develop our intuition via hands-on activities and computer labs. By using mathematical tools, we can by refining our intuition and develop our understanding.

Our textbook is Probability and Statistics, Third Edition, by Morris H. DeGroot and Mark J. Schervish.

Day to Day Operations. The class meets for lecture each Monday, Wednesday, and Friday from 1:00 PM to 1:50 PM. On Mondays, we will meet in the Mathematics Building, Room 102. On Wednesdays and Fridays, we meet in the Education Building, Room 349. The final exam takes place Monday, May 12 at 11:00 AM.

Office hours are Mondays at 2:00 PM in Math 102, Tuesdays at 2:00PM in Math East 145, Wednesdays at 3:00PM in Math 520 or by appointment. If you need to contact me, call me at 621-5245, drop by my office - Math 520 or write me electronically at jwatkins@math.arizona.edu.

Evaluation of Students. We will evaluate your work in the course through homework, computer labs and exams. Homework will be collected roughly once a week. The homework/computer lab grade will be obtained by taking the top ten scores from each. We will use the following grading scheme.

	number	points	total
homework/ lab	20	10	200
midterm exam	3	100	300
final exam	1	200	200
Total			700

Grades will be given on the usual scale A is 90%-100%, B is 80%-89%, C is 70%-79%, D is 60%-69%, and E is below 60%. If you fail to complete the course due to circumstances unforeseen, then you may qualify for a grade of I, �incomplete'� if all of the conditions are met:

� You have completed all but a small portion of the required work.

� You have scored at least 50% on all work completed

� You have a valid reason for not completing the course on time.

� You agree to make up the material in a short period of time.

� You ask for the incomplete before grades are due - 48 hours after the

final exam.

Week	Dates	Section	Topic
1	15Jan-17Jan	1.1-1.4	Introduction to Probability
2	22Jan-24Jan	1.5,6,10	Relations	MLK Day
3	27Jan-31Jan	3.1,3.2	Random Variables
4	3Feb-7Feb	3.3,4.1	Distributions and Expectation
5	10Feb-14Feb	4.2,4.5	Properties of Expectation	Exam 1
6	17Feb-21Feb	1.7	Counting methods
7	24Feb-28Feb	1.8,1.9	More counting
8	3Mar-7Mar	2.1,2.2	Conditional Probability and Independence	Spring Break 17Mar-21Mar
9	10Mar-14Mar	2.3	Bayes� Theorem
10	24Mar-28Mar	3.4	Bivariate Distributions	Exam 2
11	31Mar-4Apr	3.5-3.7	Properties of Bivariate Distributions
12	7Apr-11Apr	3.8	Functions of a Random Variable
13	14Apr-18Apr	4.2,4.3	Variance
14	21Apr-25Apr	4.6,4.7	Covariance, Correlation, Conditional Expectation
15	28Apr-2May	5.1-5.5	Special Distributions	Exam 3
16	5May-7May	5.6,5.7	Central Limit Theorem

Best wishes to you for a good semester in this course and in all your other activities.

Joe Watkins